Theresa May’s Brexit dies but she somehow survives. Incredible.

Share
Lev filed this under: ,  

It hasn’t been said directly so far that I’ve seen, but that Obamians (including the man himself!) are working hard to get Beto O’Rourke to run for president just reeks of desperation. Now look, like all Democrats I like Beto. I do! He ran a good race in Texas that didn’t make me ashamed to be a Democrat (unlike coughcough Claire McCaskill) and did better than any Democrat did in 30 years there. That’s pretty impressive. But for president? They don’t even know his views! Nobody does. It would be richly ironic if the big Obama bundlers got him to run and then he wound up in the Warren/Sanders/Booker ideological zone, at which point they’d have to cue that “The Price Is Right” trumpet fail clip. It’s not at all impossible! But even short of that, man, it’s just so desperate. The only idea, for lack of a better term, that they seem to have is summarized as “Obamism without Obama.” The thing is, these folks had a decade to find another Obama. They failed entirely! Frankly we could have used another Obama in 2016. But now they’re going for a—and look I do like the guy—largely unknown and untested commodity with a not great voting record who fell into their laps. Sounds like a real good plan to just throw him out there, instead of having him try for governor or senator in Texas again. But we can’t do that, because the presidency is the only thing that fucking matters to Democrats! And this is all only just because he sort of has an Obamaesque charisma. It’s sad.

Not surprising why they’re courting him so heavily, though, because the next best alternative for the centrists is Joe Biden. And I like Joe Biden too! He seems like a fun person to hang around. But even the Obama people seem to recognize that there’s little hope for him. Nobody thinks those early polling leads are going to hold up, and while Biden largely kept his foot out of his mouth as the veep, you gotta figure this is because he was carefully handled, and I wouldn’t count on him exercising that sort of discipline next year. Also he has tons of baggage and is provably not good at this! He’s supposedly good at winning over the hard hat types but he couldn’t fucking win them when the Democratic Party actually was largely hard hat types the first time he ran in 1988. So yeah, nobody except for Joe Biden thinks a 2020 run is a good idea. It’s only a matter of time until that number is zero.

I am kidding a little bit here: there are going to be a few other options for centrists. Your John Hickenloopers and Michael Bennets and John Delaneys and all that. But I follow these things closely and I have no idea what any of these people stand for, other than “we’re not scary Democrats.” Somehow I don’t think being a self-hating white guy Democrat is going to spur a lot of interest among primary voter types (predominated by people of color and white liberals). Probably can win, like, the Oklahoma and Kentucky primaries if they even get that far (they won’t). Hickenlooper is supposed to be the strongest of the group, but honestly, the only reason why anybody should support him is the reason he’s repudiated. Not so worried about him.

Also, Kamala Harris was a pretty bad D.A. This is why she’s not my first choice. But her ideological makeup is pretty damn desirable right now. Perhaps she can promise to appoint an attorney general that’s, like, not similar to what she was a decade ago.

2020 fever! It’s on!

Share
 

I said it before and I’ll say it again: the current longest-ever government shutdown is merely a warmup for the next time there’s divided government under a Democratic president (my guess would be 2023). They will do this again, only in a different context which will more easily lend itself to both-sidesery, after the luster of the new Democrat has worn off and people return to being mad about the bullshit not going away. While I’d like to think that the next Democrat will implement effective, even radical solutions that will take effect almost immediately, in?all likelihood the next Democratic president isn’t going to be the leftist hero of our dreams. S/he will most likely be a coalition-builder who is broadly acceptable to all Democratic groups including the bipartisan fantasists (but who will, most likely, be substantially to the left of where the Obama/Clinton party line was). Some incremental gains are unlikely to prevent the typical midterm losses. At any rate, the current shutdown is unlikely to result in a generational repudiation of the conservative movement (nor is the Trump presidency, for that matter), so the idea that Senate Majority Leader Ted Cruz won’t pull this shit in five years on President Cory Booker is…optimistic. Indeed, Cruz by that time may well be a relative moderate in his caucus. Under McConnell, no deals were made with Obama on substantive legislation, but so-called mandatory, “keeping the lights on” legislation was ultimately passed and often without major incident. I wouldn’t count on it remaining uncontroversial in the future. There remains a strong need for Republicans to find ways to differentiate themselves as “more conservative” than fellow Republicans, and virtually none of them have any interest in governing. Few seem to care much about the effects of the shutdown. It’s obviously going to head in this direction, and while Democrats could attempt to pass a law to eliminate shutdowns to the effect that the failure of a new spending bill perpetuates the status quo, I’d be surprised if they did, for the same reason I’d be surprised if they passed a law to abolish the debt ceiling. The reason why one would pass such laws would be a thoroughgoing understanding of the increasing impossibility of cooperation with the GOP, and many of the elderly nostalgics who run the party are extremely resistant to this fact. This will correct itself in time, but in how much time?

Increasingly, the scenario I see for the collapse of the Madisonian system is a Republican-initiated government shutdown that never actually ends. Goes on for months, years, just never ends. In the meantime, individual states assume more of its functions and keep federal tax receipts for themselves, and a new de facto?system is created with a still technically existing federal government shell that does nothing. I don’t see this as a good outcome but it’s increasingly plausible.

{ 1 comment }
Lev filed this under: ,  

Politics aside, his brilliant idea to stock up NBC and MSNBC with winger talent didn’t even work on its own merits. Nobody watched Megyn Kelly and NBC had to deal with several major PR calamities from her show. Considering the size of the risk—a hilarious figure of $69 million—and its total failure, firing the guy who did it for incompetence would seem to be appropriate. The guy reacted to incorrect conventional wisdom about how Trump proved that We Need More Conservative Voices in the most obvious way, which also betrayed a total lack (if you will) of understanding of what his audience wanted. Just another talentless credentialist jackass following the crowd. But I’m not holding my breath on that firing. After all, he did the same stuff that the rest of the big MSM outlets did, so firing him would be something of an indictment of the entire industry. Elite accountability is about as much a myth as national unity is in this nation, though there are still a few who believe in the latter I suppose.

#FireTheRefs

Share
Lev filed this under: , ,  

Robbing paranoid Olds really does seem to be the only game in Conservatown these days.

GoFundMe will refund more than $20 million in donations made by hundreds of thousands of people to an?online effort to build President Trump’s border wall?with Mexico, after the Iraq War veteran behind the crowdsourcing effort suddenly changed his plans Friday on what to do with the funds.

In an update to the “We the People Will Build the Wall” campaign,?Brian Kolfage?wrote that rather than donating the money raised to the federal government, it would instead be handed over to a private nonprofit he said he had established in order to construct a wall himself.

Um, yeah, a NONPROFIT! Where the money will totally go and be used for things, legitimate things. That’s the ticket!

Share
{ 1 comment }
 

Wonder if it’ll matter:

“Fox and Friends” co-host Brian Kilmeade told viewers on Thursday that “big picture” the use of an emergency declaration to get President Trump’s border wall funding would be a “disaster” and set a “terrible precedent” for the future.

“It would just be a?disaster in the big picture?and just show us being inept?at govern[ing] around the world,” he said. “And it would set just a terrible precedent that would continue, as Erick Erickson, brought up, he said, look, the next President, if?it is a liberal president?will say a state of?emergency will be climate?change. ‘Look at what happened with (Hurricane) Sandy.?Look at what happened with?the earthquake.?Look at what’s happening to?the polar bears who have no?place to walk on ice.’”

The thing is they’re right! This is exactly what a liberal president could do and, if Trump makes emergency declarations politics by other means, what they will demand. And usually he listens to these people, so maybe…

Nah, probably not. He’s in full dick-measuring mode right now. That’s all that THE WALL is really about. Those libs gotta be owned!

Share
Lev filed this under:  

Kind of an obvious point, but the fact that around three dozen Democrats are contemplating presidential runs is good news because it’s a sign they think Trump is beatable. Way back in the ancient history of 2008—as big a slam dunk for Dems as there has been in 50 years—there were only ever a dozen at most. Sure, Clinton scared some candidates off, but still. There hasn’t ever been anything like this and while too much choice can be paralyzing, there will be plenty of winnowing over the next year. Having an ultimate dozen of top-rate Dems competing will be good indeed. (Republicans’ massive primary crowds are irrelevant as any sort of sign because most of them are provably just jockeying for talk radio jobs, while there has yet to be a Democrat who runs for president just to get on MSNBC that I know of.)

Of course, while Trump’s 2020 defeat is far from assured, I’ve never really doubted it that much. I doubt he’s added a single voter to his column in two years and has definitely lost a bunch, and will lose more to generational turnover. Furthermore, Dems are going to be motivated in 2020. Still, the real fun is going to come when Democrats try to govern next…

Share
Lev filed this under:  

I feel like a broken record on this, but the roots of the most recent disgrace of bothsides is that much of the mainstream media truly believes it. They truly believe that when they’re doing bothsides that they are giving you the truth. I mean, fun as it’s been to argue with them, mock them, rage at them, etc., lo these many years, the fact remains. It’s not a cynical business plan or a simple misapprehension, and they’re not going to be talked out of it.

I guess this means that we need to WORK THE REFS but we can always simply fire them because liberals are the only ones who pay their salaries. There are publications that actually value empiricism that would be a better destination for your dollars, as we’ve discussed many times before. Not all of them are on the left but the ones that are could always use your money because there aren’t any rich lefty sugar daddies bankrolling media ventures like that. Why would they after all, the MSM really is intended for them and only for them.

At any rate, one day a real rain is going to clean up the media. And that rain is called generational turnover. I’m sort of looking forward to it but also by that time I’m probably going to be old, so…

Share
Lev filed this under: ,